Tuesday night gave us exactly what we needed: a clean, disciplined 5★ winner on the Cincinnati Reds Team Total Over 4.5 runs.
This was not a forced play. It was not a chase. It was the right market, at the right number, with the clearest path on the board. The Reds beat the Mets 5-3, which means the team total cleared by the thinnest but sweetest margin possible: five Cincinnati runs. The damage started immediately, with Cincinnati jumping Kodai Senga for a four-run first inning, powered by a Sal Stewart three-run homer and a Spencer Steer solo shot. Stewart later added an RBI single to get the Reds to the magic number.
Why We Played It
The handicap was simple: instead of forcing the full-game over, the cleaner angle was isolating Cincinnati’s offense.
The Mets/Reds full-game total had appeal, but the market had moved to a less attractive number. Rather than needing both offenses to cooperate, the better expression was the Reds Team Total Over 4.5. We only needed Cincinnati to get to five runs, and the matchup gave us multiple paths to get there.
The key angles were:
Cincinnati had already shown life offensively in this series. Senga was returning from a layoff and had real command/workload questions. The Mets bullpen path was live if Senga could not work deep. Most importantly, the number was still 4.5, not 5.5.
That matters. A lot.
This was a classic framework play: find the best market, write the loss script, and only bet it if the number still gives the edge room to breathe.
How It Cashed
The Reds did not waste time.
They put up four runs in the first inning, which immediately put the bet in a great position. Sal Stewart delivered the biggest swing with a three-run homer, then Spencer Steer followed with a solo shot. Cincinnati added the fifth run later, and that was all we needed.
The final score was Reds 5, Mets 3.
That means:
Reds Team Total Over 4.5 — WIN
Not pretty by margin, but a cash is a cash. And when you bet team totals, getting to the exact number you need is part of the game. We did not need six, seven, or eight. We needed five. Cincinnati got five.
This Week’s Bets So Far
| Bet | Result | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Royals/Nationals Over 9 (-118) | Win +$500 | Nationals won 7-3, giving the game 10 total runs. |
| Cardinals Team Total Over 4.5 | Loss -$550 | Cardinals won 3-0, but only scored 3 runs. Dustin May threw a one-hit shutout for St. Louis. |
| Reds Team Total Over 4.5 | Win +$500 | Reds won 5-3, cashing the team total with exactly 5 runs. |
This Week’s Record: 2-1 +$450
June Record: 10-4 (71%) +$3,300
Discover more from Pappy's PlayBook
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
No Comments Yet