Top Rated MLB Pick: Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (6/12)

I woke up feeling generous again and decided to release today’s MLB pick for free. This is a 10* rated pick!

Milwaukee Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 Runs
Risking: To win $1,000
Play to: -130
Pass at: -135 or worse

The reason behind this bet is simple: this is the cleanest way to attack Milwaukee’s offense against Andrew Painter.

Painter has had a rough season, entering this matchup with a 6.21 ERA and 5.09 FIP, and he has allowed 12 runs over his last three starts. That is a tough setup against a Brewers offense that has been one of the better run-producing teams in baseball. Milwaukee ranks near the top of the league in runs scored, gets on base, creates pressure, and has enough speed to manufacture runs without needing to rely only on home runs. (Brew Crew Ball)

I prefer the team total instead of laying a heavy moneyline or needing Milwaukee to cover the run line. We do not need to predict the final score. We only need the Brewers to get to five runs.

The matchup also gives Milwaukee multiple scoring paths. Painter has allowed a lot of contact this season, and his 11.2 hits allowed per nine innings is tied for the worst mark in baseball. That matters against a Brewers lineup that can work counts, put the ball in play, and keep innings moving.

I also discovered that Milwaukee has been excellent against right-handed pitching recently, with a .393 OBP vs righties this month. That is exactly the kind of profile we want for a team total over: traffic, baserunners, and pressure.

There is always risk with a team total. Painter could survive four or five innings, and Philadelphia’s bullpen is capable of keeping the game under control. But at this number, I like Milwaukee’s path to five runs.